{"id":3928,"date":"2025-05-09T19:08:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T19:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/?p=3928"},"modified":"2025-05-09T19:08:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T19:08:10","slug":"im-not-an-eye-doctor-but-im-here-to-help-you-with-your-hindsight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2025\/05\/09\/im-not-an-eye-doctor-but-im-here-to-help-you-with-your-hindsight\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;I&#8217;m Not an Eye Doctor, But I&#8217;m Here to Help You with Your Hindsight&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"UniqueMessageBody_137\" class=\"XbIp4 G8bTU GNqVo allowTextSelection OuGoX\" aria-label=\"Message body\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"rps_8198\">\n<div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">BY GRANT ROST<\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">As a torts professor, I get regular emails from a listserv that compiles and summarizes new torts cases from around the country.\u00a0 In a recent blast, I discovered a case from Idaho that combined two of my favorite subjects: torts and cognitive biases.\u00a0 In this case, a plaintiff reported to an emergency room and was sent home for his mild symptoms, and with some vanilla diagnosis, only to then return to the ER suffering from a massive stroke.<a title=\"#x__ftn1\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn1\" name=\"x__ftnref1\" data-linkindex=\"2\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[1]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 The court reflected on trial testimony in which one of the defendant hospital\u2019s medical experts explained the perils of judging an incident such as this with a \u201chindsight bias.\u201d<a title=\"#x__ftn2\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn2\" name=\"x__ftnref2\" data-linkindex=\"3\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[2]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 While finding that it was both unnecessary and irrelevant for the expert to testify to the jury about the risk of judging with hindsight bias, the court said something that got me thinking.\u00a0 And I thought about this enough to want to run it past our community of blog readers.\u00a0 The court said, \u201cIt is within the experience of the average juror that \u2018hindsight is 20\/20.\u2019 The jury did not need Dr. Adeoye to explain that concept to them.\u201d<a title=\"#x__ftn3\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn3\" name=\"x__ftnref3\" data-linkindex=\"4\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[3]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 The court followed that quote up by saying expert testimony about hindsight bias wasn\u2019t\u2014quoting Idaho Rule of Evidence 702\u2014based on \u201c\u2018\u2026scientific, technical, or specialized knowledge\u2026\u2019\u201d that would help the trier of fact in deciding the defendant hospital\u2019s negligence.<a title=\"#x__ftn4\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn4\" name=\"x__ftnref4\" data-linkindex=\"5\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[4]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 To summarize all this another way, the court basically said that if you know the famous phrase you understand the cognitive bias.<\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">The hindsight bias is a very real cognitive phenomenon backed by scientific and experimental literature.\u00a0 One of my personal-favorite pieces for this very blog was about a fascinating experiment demonstrating hindsight bias in mock juries.<a title=\"#x__ftn5\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn5\" name=\"x__ftnref5\" data-linkindex=\"6\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[5]<\/span><\/a> \u00a0Even our United States Supreme Court has acknowledged its sneaky power.<a title=\"#x__ftn6\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn6\" name=\"x__ftnref6\" data-linkindex=\"7\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[6]<\/span><\/a> \u00a0Yet courts don\u2019t seem particularly keen on allowing expert witnesses to testify about the phenomenon of hindsight bias, so long as the purpose of the testimony is <i>just<\/i> to warn the jurors about its sneaky power.<a title=\"#x__ftn7\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn7\" name=\"x__ftnref7\" data-linkindex=\"8\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[7]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 I found it a little odd, however, to suggest that if one understands that \u201chindsight is 20\/20\u201d one must also understand the hindsight bias <b><i>and<\/i><\/b><i> <\/i>would similarly understand the need to guard against it. It seems to me that there can be a gap between knowing an aphorism and understanding its scientific outcomes. This isn\u2019t to say that there are no good reasons to stop experts from testifying about hindsight bias.\u00a0 The trial judge in <i>Hagan, <\/i>a case I mention in footnote 7, felt that the scientific literature in front of him hadn\u2019t precisely clarified what kind of factual circumstances produce the biggest risks of hindsight bias.<a title=\"#x__ftn8\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn8\" name=\"x__ftnref8\" data-linkindex=\"9\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[8]<\/span><\/a>\u00a0 It seemed that judge <i>might<\/i> be open to the testimony so long as researchers had first discovered a precise set of risks in a lab that were then being duplicated in his courtroom. Finally, it goes without saying that a savvy attorney can argue in closing that it is easier to legally conclude there must have been a problem after the problematic thing has already happened.\u00a0 That is a species of commonsense argument which courts readily allow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">But I\u2019ve played a dirty little trick here, haven\u2019t I?\u00a0 I have purposefully withheld from you a scientific definition of hindsight bias so that you couldn\u2019t test that definition against the statement, \u201chindsight is 20\/20.\u201d \u00a0So, let\u2019s get into that now, shall we?\u00a0 Do we feel at this point that we understand the hindsight bias, as science understands it, simply by recalling the wise saying that hindsight is 20\/20? Maybe or maybe not. Let\u2019s make a true comparison between aphorism and phenomenon, and I\u2019ll let you decide whether a jury easily crosses the bridge from the popular quote to the popular science.\u00a0 Here\u2019s how at least one group of researchers has defined hindsight bias in a courtroom setting:<\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">Research on human judgment suggests that people cannot ignore a known outcome when assessing an event&#8217;s likelihood \u2026 When trying to reconstruct what a foresightful state of mind would have perceived, people remain anchored in the hindsightful perspective. This leaves the reported outcome looking much more likely than it would look to the reasonable person without the benefit of hindsight.<a title=\"#x__ftn9\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftn9\" name=\"x__ftnref9\" data-linkindex=\"10\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[9]<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"x_MsoNormal\">Maybe it\u2019s just me, but I don\u2019t think this same idea is fully captured by or apparent in the common meaning of the phrase \u201chindsight is 20\/20.\u201d\u00a0 Then again, I recently turned 50.\u00a0 My vision hasn\u2019t been 20\/20 for a while now and I\u2019m open to a hindsight rebuke on my conclusions here.\u00a0 You can now understand why the hospital wanted its expert to testify about and caution against hindsight bias.\u00a0 In its view, supported by scientific literature, it becomes that much easier to conclude the hospital should have predicted or easily diagnosed the plaintiff as having a stroke for the simple reason that we\u2019re now fully aware the plaintiff was having a stroke.<\/p>\n<div><\/p>\n<hr align=\"left\" size=\"1\" width=\"33%\" \/>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn1\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref1\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref1\" name=\"x__ftn1\" data-linkindex=\"11\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[1]<\/span><\/a> <i>Hill v. Emergency Med. of Idaho, P.A.,<\/i> No. 50686-2023, 2025 Ida. LEXIS 34, at *2-3, (Ida. Mar. 27, 2025).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn2\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref2\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref2\" name=\"x__ftn2\" data-linkindex=\"12\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[2]<\/span><\/a> <i>Id<\/i>. at *14.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn3\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref3\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref3\" name=\"x__ftn3\" data-linkindex=\"13\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[3]<\/span><\/a> <i>Id<\/i>. at *20.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn4\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref4\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref4\" name=\"x__ftn4\" data-linkindex=\"14\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[4]<\/span><\/a> <i>Id<\/i>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn5\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref5\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref5\" name=\"x__ftn5\" data-linkindex=\"15\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[5]<\/span><\/a> Grant Rost, <i>When a Jury Easily Predicts the Past, <\/i><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoSubtleReference\">Brain Lessons Blog <\/span>(Dec. 1, 2023), <a title=\"Original URL: https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2023\/12\/01\/when-a-jury-easily-predicts-the-past\/. Click or tap if you trust this link.\" href=\"https:\/\/nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flaw.temple.edu%2Faer%2F2023%2F12%2F01%2Fwhen-a-jury-easily-predicts-the-past%2F&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cjules.epstein%40TEMPLE.EDU%7C5dd187a4bead4a9dec5a08dd8c2660b9%7C716e81efb52244738e3110bd02ccf6e5%7C0%7C0%7C638820819009896114%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=1ZXDeLNrLlkiYj6Gq0DHH2pqZog5ahRbVA7ulQ2Xr74%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\" data-linkindex=\"16\">https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2023\/12\/01\/when-a-jury-easily-predicts-the-past\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn6\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref6\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref6\" name=\"x__ftn6\" data-linkindex=\"17\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[6]<\/span><\/a> <i>KSR Int\u2019l Co. v. Teleflex Inc.<\/i> 550 U.S. 398, 421 (2007) (\u201cA factfinder should be aware, of course, of the distortion caused by hindsight bias and must be cautious of arguments reliant upon <i>ex post<\/i> reasoning.\u201d)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn7\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref7\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref7\" name=\"x__ftn7\" data-linkindex=\"18\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[7]<\/span><\/a> See, e.g., <i>United State v. Maxwell<\/i>, 20-CR-330, 2021 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 228127 at *9, (S.D.N.Y. Nov. 21, 2021) (\u201cIndeed, neither the Government nor the Court could identify a federal court that has admitted expert testimony on the jury\u2019s hindsight bias.\u201d Noting also that hindsight bias was admissible as a critique of another expert\u2019s opinion in the case. <i>Id<\/i>. at *8.); <i>Holley v. Gilead Sciences, Inc<\/i>., 18-CV-06972, 2023 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 92255 at *58-59, (N.D.Cal. Mar. 27, 2023) (Holding that Gilead could argue the biasing of viewing facts in hindsight but didn\u2019t need expert testimony to illuminate the bias to the jury because \u201cThe jury is fully capable of considering that argument without expert testimony.\u201d <i>Id<\/i>. at *60.); and <i>Hagan v. Wright<\/i>, 2011CV4404, 2012 Colo. Dist. LEXIS 2988 (D. Colo. Jun. 4, 2012) (Expressing concerns about hindsight bias testimony and specific scientific literature on hindsight bias offered by a party, though no expert witness was listed to testify about the phenomenon.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn8\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref8\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref8\" name=\"x__ftn8\" data-linkindex=\"19\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[8]<\/span><\/a> <i>Hagan v. Wright<\/i>, 2011CV4404, 2012 Colo. Dist. LEXIS 2988 at *3, (D. Colo. Jun. 4, 2012)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"x_gmail-ftn9\">\n<p class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteText\"><a title=\"#x__ftnref9\" href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/inbox\/id\/AAQkADhjMWY4ZjhjLWYzZjYtNDBjNS1hOWVhLTE2YjFkZTVjZmU0MgAQAHmy203wtZxBkjJ782NuDQ4%3D#x__ftnref9\" name=\"x__ftn9\" data-linkindex=\"20\"><span class=\"x_gmail-MsoFootnoteReference\">[9]<\/span><\/a> Kim. A. Kamin and Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, Ex Post \u2260 Ex Ante: Determining Liability in Hindsight, 10 <span class=\"x_gmail-MsoSubtleReference\">Law and Human Behavior<\/span>, no. 1, 1995, 89-104 at 90, <a title=\"Original URL: https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/doi\/10.1007\/BF01499075. Click or tap if you trust this link.\" href=\"https:\/\/nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpsycnet.apa.org%2Fdoi%2F10.1007%2FBF01499075&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cjules.epstein%40TEMPLE.EDU%7C5dd187a4bead4a9dec5a08dd8c2660b9%7C716e81efb52244738e3110bd02ccf6e5%7C0%7C0%7C638820819009913213%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=8y%2BTUUpp%2BGnstr8AprYee5ttobALCmlokWuwG%2BQdVuM%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\" data-linkindex=\"21\">https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/doi\/10.1007\/BF01499075<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BY GRANT ROST As a torts professor, I get regular emails from a listserv that compiles and summarizes new torts cases from around the country.\u00a0 In a recent blast, I discovered a case from Idaho that combined two of my favorite subjects: torts and cognitive biases.\u00a0 In this case, a plaintiff reported to an emergency<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"coauthors":[203],"class_list":["post-3928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brain-lessons"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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