{"id":3217,"date":"2021-08-05T14:13:22","date_gmt":"2021-08-05T18:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/aer\/?p=3117"},"modified":"2021-12-16T14:55:40","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T14:55:40","slug":"brain-lessons-availability-judgment-and-the-mermen-of-virginiaim-sitting-poolside-at-my-local-ymca-my-daughter-has-recently-discovered-that-shes-part-fish-or-if-you-ask-her-part","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2021\/08\/05\/brain-lessons-availability-judgment-and-the-mermen-of-virginiaim-sitting-poolside-at-my-local-ymca-my-daughter-has-recently-discovered-that-shes-part-fish-or-if-you-ask-her-part\/","title":{"rendered":"BRAIN LESSONS: AVAILABILITY, JUDGMENT, AND THE MERMEN OF VIRGINIA"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u2019m sitting poolside at my local YMCA.\u00a0 My daughter has recently discovered that she\u2019s part fish or, if you ask her, part mermaid.\u00a0 So, I end up poolside frequently and end up frequently watching members of my little town propel themselves past me in the lap lanes that I sit next to.\u00a0 It\u2019s a good time to think about questions that have very little impact on my daily life.\u00a0 I came up with this one for the sake of this month\u2019s topic:\u00a0 \u201cGrant, how physically fit are the older men in your community?\u201d\u00a0 At blazing speed, my brain goes to work.\u00a0 \u201c<\/span>Well, you know that when you\u2019re here with your daughter, you see far more women than men swimming, don\u2019t you.\u00a0 They filled that aqua-fitness group you just saw.\u00a0 No men in that group.\u00a0 And just look out there right now!\u00a0 There are six women in the pool but only one of the two gray-haired men in here is doing laps.\u00a0 The other one is a terribly lazy professor who is writing instead of swimming.\u00a0 Ergo, propter, sum: the older men of the town are likely unfit\u2014especially compared to the women.\u201d<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

You must admit that the lawyer in you is cringing right now.\u00a0 It\u2019s easy to see my example above as a sampling error\u2014a big error, no matter how many trips my little mermaid and I have taken to the YMCA\u2019s pool.\u00a0 Let\u2019s not, however, imagine that we lawyers are immune from such thinking.\u00a0 As Nobel-Prize winner Daniel Kahneman demonstrated repeatedly in his research and testing, we all fall prey to the lure of \u201cavailability.\u201d\u00a0 That is, our brains will tend to answer a complex question of judgment by answering, instead, a simpler\u2014but unknown and subconscious\u2014question instead.\u00a0 So, instead of getting out and taking measurements of the fitness of the middle-aged and older men in my little town, my brain answers a different and easier question:\u00a0 How many instances of the category are <\/span>available<\/span><\/i><\/b> to my mind and how fast is the flow of examples?<\/span>1<\/span>\u00a0 Kahneman and his principal research partner, Amos Tversky, named this mental shortcut the \u201cavailability heuristic.\u201d<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Suppose you and I are at the poolside contemplating the frequency of Hollywood divorce rates.\u00a0 Good Morning America, The Today Show, and Twitter have us covered.\u00a0 We are awash in stories of Hollywood break-ups.\u00a0 Thus, they pop into our brains easily and plentifully.<\/span>3<\/span>\u00a0 The likely conclusions are absolutely unavoidable for even the most brilliant lawyer among us.\u00a0 We will overestimate the divorce rate among Hollywood types.\u00a0 Kahneman says that when we make this judgment, we are really just describing how plentiful our examples are and how easily they come to us.<\/span>4<\/span>\u00a0 After all, it\u2019s far easier for us to answer an easy question we can substitute in than to think through the question in a laborious but principled way that would inevitably lead us to conduct research on Hollywood divorce rates.\u00a0 It\u2019s now time for your second admission of the day.\u00a0 Admit that you already whispered this once to yourself when reading the sentences above:\u00a0 \u201c<\/span>Well, the number of divorces among Hollywood types <\/span><\/i>has <\/span><\/i><\/b>to be higher!<\/span><\/i>\u201d\u00a0 And don\u2019t let me get your brain going on how likely it is that a politician will be involved in a sex scandal.<\/span>5<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I cannot even begin to explore the number of litigation applications and hazards the availability heuristic presents.\u00a0 Given our blog space, I will posit only one question for litigators and litigation students to meditate upon:\u00a0 If I know that people will substitute a complex question of judgment on size, frequency, or likelihood with a question of how quickly they can recall numerous examples, what is my jury likely to think about when I ask them to consider \u201cJudgment-Question X\u201d?\u00a0 <\/span>Voir dire <\/span><\/i>applications spring to my mind, but perhaps that\u2019s because I\u2019m teaching <\/span>voir dire <\/span><\/i>the day after tomorrow in my summer trial advocacy class.<\/span>6<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, I have saved the best part for last.\u00a0 A psychologist by the name of Norbert Schwarz decided to test the effects that being forced to recall numerous examples would have on one\u2019s ultimate judgment question.\u00a0 He asked participants in different groups to list six and twelve instances in which they acted assertively and then asked both to rate their own assertiveness.\u00a0 The groups that had to list only six instances of assertiveness rated themselves more assertive than the groups that had to list twelve.<\/span>7<\/span>\u00a0 An odd result considering that one group had twice the number of examples at hand!\u00a0 Conversely, people that had to list twelve instances of their meekness were more likely to conclude that they weren\u2019t meek at all.\u00a0 An availability paradox!\u00a0 The harder people had to work at coming up with examples, the more likely they were to make judgments in the <\/span>opposite<\/span><\/i> direction of the heuristic.<\/span>8<\/span>\u00a0 So, in other experiments, they were less likely to think they were regular bicyclists the more instances of cycling they had to recall.\u00a0 They were less impressed by a car the more advantages of the car they had to list.\u00a0 Finally\u2014and here\u2019s one for the courtroom\u2014they were less confident in a choice when they were asked to produce arguments justifying the choice.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I just looked up at the pool.\u00a0 I\u2019ve been tapping away for an hour and a half now.\u00a0 There are seven people in the pool room now.\u00a0 Six of them are mermen.\u00a0 My daughter is the lone mermaid.\u00a0 I can only conclude that the mermen in my town must be very fit.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>______<\/p>\n

[1] See, Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow 130 (2011).<\/p>\n

[2] Id. at 129-130.<\/p>\n

[3] Id. at 130.<\/p>\n

[4] Id.<\/p>\n

[5] See, Id.<\/p>\n

[6] This is an example of another fun cognitive bias called \u201cpriming.\u201d\u00a0 I am primed right now to see lots of things through the lens of voir dire<\/em> because I\u2019ve been immersing myself in the subject while getting ready to teach it.<\/p>\n

[7] Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow 133 (2011).<\/p>\n

[8] Id. at 132.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I\u2019m sitting poolside at my local YMCA.\u00a0 My daughter has recently discovered that she\u2019s part fish or, if you ask her, part mermaid.\u00a0 So, I end up poolside frequently and end up frequently watching members of my little town propel themselves past me in the lap lanes that I sit next to.\u00a0 It\u2019s a good<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"coauthors":[203],"class_list":["post-3217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brain-lessons"],"yoast_head":"\nBRAIN LESSONS: AVAILABILITY, JUDGMENT, AND THE MERMEN OF VIRGINIA - Advocacy and Evidence Resources<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2021\/08\/05\/brain-lessons-availability-judgment-and-the-mermen-of-virginiaim-sitting-poolside-at-my-local-ymca-my-daughter-has-recently-discovered-that-shes-part-fish-or-if-you-ask-her-part\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BRAIN LESSONS: AVAILABILITY, JUDGMENT, AND THE MERMEN OF VIRGINIA - 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