{"id":2973,"date":"2021-04-30T08:11:42","date_gmt":"2021-04-30T12:11:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/aer\/?p=2973"},"modified":"2021-12-16T14:56:05","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T14:56:05","slug":"trumpian-forensics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/law.temple.edu\/aer\/2021\/04\/30\/trumpian-forensics\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Trumpian&#8221; Forensics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The waning days of the Trump administration saw a fervid, if not frenzied, rush to put out policy statement or decisions meant to tie the hands of the Biden administration, including declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, labeling a Yemeni group a terrorist organization, recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over parts of the Sahara, allowing oil leasing in Alaska and limiting the reach of the Endangered Species Act.<\/p>\n<p>With that approach to governance, it is unsurprising that in the last days of December, 2020, the Department of Justice issued an unsigned, unattributed attack on the PCAST report <strong>Forensic Science in Criminal Courts: Ensuring Scientific Validity of Feature-Comparison Methods<\/strong>,\u00a0 <em>four years<\/em> after its publication.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2975 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/law-dev.temple.edu\/aer\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2021\/03\/pcast.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"197\" height=\"255\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The PCAST report questioned the validity of various forensic disciplines &#8211; put simply, the DOJ\u2019s express intent for this \u201cStatement on the PCAST Report\u201d was to show the PCAST report to be incorrect because \u201ca number of recent federal and state court opinions have cited the Report as support for limiting the admissibility of firearms\/toolmarks evidence in criminal cases.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It is apparent that the DOJ response was rushed in order to be released before the change of administrations \u2013 it is actually labeled \u201cpre-decisional draft.\u201d\u00a0 The attack on PCAST, from the same administration that de-commissioned the National Commission on Forensic Science (where this author was a member), has a multitude of questionable averments.\u00a0 Three in particular warrant exposure.<\/p>\n<p>The first, a illogical argument, is that the PCAST report cannot be accurate because it classes forensic disciplines such as latent print examination, firearms comparison, and bitemark examination, as all being forms of \u201cmetrology.\u201d\u00a0 In a somewhat tautological fashion, the DOJ reasons that<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Metrology measures quantity;<\/li>\n<li>Quantity is expressed numerically;<\/li>\n<li>\u201cforensic pattern comparison methods <em>compare <\/em>the features\/characteristics and overall patterns of a questioned sample to a known source; they do not <em>measure <\/em>them[;]\u201d and<\/li>\n<li>Therefore, these disciplines fall outside of metrology and as a result the PCAST report is wrong in many of its conclusions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The problems here are simple.\u00a0 PCAST defines metrology as \u201cmeasuring <em>and comparing<\/em> features\u201d and, more importantly, simply applies scientific standards to disciplines that purport to be and present themselves in court as science.\u00a0 None of those standards \u2013 such as \u201cscientific validity\u201d and the need for \u201creliable principles and methods\u201d -is limited to \u201cquantity\u201d measurement.\u00a0 So whether the nomenclature of \u201cmetrology\u201d meets the definition cited by DOJ is of no moment.<\/p>\n<p>The second error is that of \u2018blaming\u2019 the PCAST report for restrictions on firearm matching testimony in \u201crecent federal and state court opinions[.]\u201d Even a cursory review shows otherwise.\u00a0 In one case, the report was cited only in regard to \u201cerror rates\u201d and is not relied on as a ground for restricting the scope of testimony, a restriction that actually came in response to the firearms examiner\u2019s inability to articulate how conclusions were reached.<\/p>\n<p>In at least one case, the Department of Justice presented its own experts to support firearms opinions, and those experts were deemed inadequate even after the court acknowledged that \u201cthe <strong>PCAST<\/strong> report is hardly beyond critique, and the government&#8217;s experts stated many valid criticisms of it throughout the hearing[.]\u201d\u00a0 Finally, one case had the report cited only in a concurrence, upheld the firearms testimony as generally accepted, and rejected only one unsustainable opinion of the expert \u2013 that therefore the projectiles came from the same gun \u201cto the practical exclusion of all other guns.\u201d Ironically, this ruling echoes the DOJ position on firearms \u201cmatch\u201d testimony that<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px\">[a]n examiner shall not assert that two toolmarks originated from the same source to the exclusion of all other sources. This may wrongly imply that a \u2018source identification\u2019 conclusion is based upon a statistically-derived or verified measurement or an actual comparison to all other toolmarks in the world, rather than an examiner\u2019s expert opinion.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/olp\/page\/file\/1083671\/download\">Approved ULTR for the Forensic Firearms\/Toolmarks Discipline \u2013 Pattern Match<\/a>\u200b (effective 1.24.19 to 8.14.20)<\/p>\n<p>In other cases, the PCAST report was but one of many bases for limiting examiner conclusions and in no instance caused or supported banning such testimony in its entirety.\u00a0 The Government intent here is clear \u2013 to devalue these cases as precedent and, as a consequence, the limitations on testimony should be lessened or discarded entirely.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps most concerning is the DOJ Report\u2019s selective excerpting of reports on error rates.\u00a0 DOJ purports to challenge only the PCAST contention that \u201cblack box\u201d studies are appropriate for assessing error rate but then spends much time disparaging all error rate studies as having no utility.\u00a0 Two instances will confirm this.<\/p>\n<p>A report by the American Association for the Advancement of Science is quoted by DOJ as concluding that \u201c[I]t is unreasonable to think that the \u2018error rate\u2019 of latent fingerprint examination can meaningfully be reduced to a single number or even a single set of numbers.\u201d\u00a0 But the AAAS report emphatically supports error rate analysis and utilization, and simply calls for more and better studies.<\/p>\n<p>This occurs again when the DOJ excerpts language from a recent article on error rates by Professor Itiel Dror.\u00a0 According to the excerpted language, Dr. Dror concludes that error rates may be \u201cmisleading\u201d and \u201csay very little about a specific examiner\u2019s decision in a particular case.\u201d\u00a0 But Dror\u2019s same article actually says much more:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px\">an average error rate for an average expert, in an average case, may not be informative (may even be misleading) for evaluating a specific expert examiner, doing a specific case.\u00a0 However, providing ranges, confidence intervals, standard deviations, and other information about \u201cthe error rate,\u201d as well as comparative error rates of others, may all be helpful in understanding and evaluating a general error rate.<\/p>\n<p>Dror, The Error in \u201cError Rate\u201d: Why Error Rates Are So Needed, Yet So Elusive, 65 JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES 5, 15-16 (2020).\u00a0 That current error rate research is deficient in some regards in no way undercuts the relevance of such information or the thrust of the PCAST report.<\/p>\n<p>This author contacted Professor Dror for comments on the DOJ stance.\u00a0 Here is what he shared:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cAttacking use of error rates is attacking scientific measurement.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cMy article points out difficulties not to give up on the science but to point out challenges and limitations.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cIf [the forensic disciplines] are not metrology, then they are giving up on science.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>There are several bottom lines here.\u00a0 Selective excerpting is not a valid form of argument; and focusing on the label \u201cmetrology\u201d in no way undercuts the principles of the PCAST report.\u00a0 Most importantly, with the change of administration and the appointing of Eric Lander, lead author of the PCAST report, to the cabinet-level position director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, it can be hoped that the Department of Justice will take a less science-phobic and more informed and accurate stance in the future.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211; &#8211;<\/p>\n<p>The 2016 PCAST report can be found at <a href=\"https:\/\/obamawhitehouse.archives.gov\/blog\/2016\/09\/20\/pcast-releases-report-forensic-science-criminal-courts\">https:\/\/obamawhitehouse.archives.gov\/blog\/2016\/09\/20\/pcast-releases-report-forensic-science-criminal-courts<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The December 2020 DOJ response can be found at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/opa\/pr\/justice-department-publishes-statement-2016-presidents-council-advisors-science-and\">https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/opa\/pr\/justice-department-publishes-statement-2016-presidents-council-advisors-science-and<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The waning days of the Trump administration saw a fervid, if not frenzied, rush to put out policy statement or decisions meant to tie the hands of the Biden administration, including declaring Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism, labeling a Yemeni group a terrorist organization, recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over parts of the Sahara, allowing oil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,6,7],"tags":[],"coauthors":[238],"class_list":["post-2973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-advocacy-and-evidence-blog","category-criminal-law","category-evidence"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Trumpian&quot; 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